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NOAA's Coastal Storms Initiative (CSI)
in Northeast Florida
and the NWS Local WRF Modeling Project
Patrick
T. Welsh
WFO Jacksonville, Florida, NWS
NOAA's Coastal Storms Initiative (CSI) in Northeast Florida
and the NWS Local WRF Modeling Project
Patrick Welsh1, Brent Shaw2, Art Wildman1, John Smart2,
Bernard Meisner3, and Jeff Savadel4
NOAA's
Coastal Storms Initiative was implemented as a series of nine
diverse projects in the Northeast Florida area as the national
pilot for future coastal enhancements to
NOAA services. Those projects were conducted in the St John's
River Estuary and
adjacent coastal areas. The nine separate CSI projects will be
listed briefly.
The National Weather Service(NWS) local Weather Research and Forecast
(WRF) modeling
initiative at the NWS Jacksonville Florida forecast office is
one of the projects.
A non-hydrostatic, high resolution (mesoscale b, 4 km grid) version
of the WRF mass model
was implemented on a COTS Linux computer cluster in the Weather
Forecast Office all
software was open source except for the high performance COTS
compilers.
This
project uses a version of the WRF initialization developed by
the NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL) which "hot starts"
the WRF with a 3D diabatic local assimilation procedure. The WRF
local model is initialized with the Local Analysis and Prediction
System (hereafter FSL LAPS) using additional local data assimilation
including surface, radar, satellite
and other data sources. Model implementation issues will be briefly
discussed with some individual case results. This is believed
to be the first operational use of the WRF model in the National
Weather Service, and was accomplished by a small team of FSL researchers
working jointly with operational personnel at the regional headquarters
and the forecast office. One of the features of this local model
implementation is a rigorous third-party validation program to
verify the results of this modeling initiative.
1NOAA
NWS WFO Jacksonville, FL
corresponding author: pat.welsh@noaa.gov
2NOAA FSL Boulder, CO
3NOAA NWS Southern Region Headquarters, Ft Worth, TX
4NOAA NWSHQ
Biography
Pat
Welsh graduated from the U. S. Naval Academy in June, 1969
with dual majors in Oceanography and Engineering. His first
tour was aboard the guided missile destroyer, U. S. S. Decatur
(DDG-31). The ship was equipped with surface to air missiles
and a sophisticated frequency scanning Doppler radar. Pat
was the radar and intelligence division officer, and served
as a combat aircraft intercept controller controlling fighter
aircraft. During this tour off Vietnam and Cambodia, he
was spot promoted to Lieutenant, and was awarded the Navy
Achievement Medal.
He next attended the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School in
Monterey, California and graduated with a Masters of Science
degree in Meteorology. His thesis work was part of the first
shipboard attempt to measure high speed atmospheric turbulence
from a moving ship platform, part of a larger laser propagation
study to define the limits of laser pointing accuracy. Following
graduation, Pat joined the Staff of Commander Cruiser Destroyer
Group Twelve, including a six month deployment to the Mediterranean
as Navigator, Scheduler and Combat Systems Officer for an
Aircraft Carrier Battle Group. For this tour of duty, he
was awarded the Navy Commendation Medal. Serving as an instructor
in the Oceanography Department of the U. S. Naval Academy,
he concurrently assumed duty as the Laboratory and Technician
Manager in addition to his normal teaching duties. He taught
oceanography, meteorology and geology courses, and received
a letter of commendation from the Academic Dean.
Pat led the team that developed a new capstone course for
the curriculum, integrating the research and applied aspects
of Oceanography. As an outgrowth of his duties as laboratory
manager, he developed a long range capital improvement program
which the department adopted. Pat was responsible for the
construction liaison for the new Hendrix Oceanography Laboratory,
a 3500 square foot facility on the Severn River, and for
the new research vessel's scientific suite. He was awarded
the Navy Achievement Medal for his work at the Naval Academy.
Pat served as the Officer in Charge of the Naval Oceanography
Command Detachment at Mayport, Florida, where he was awarded
his third Navy Achievement Medal for his management improvements
and innovative fleet training programs in weather readiness,
antisubmarine warfare, and sensor utilization. The latter
included tactical exploitation of anomalous radar and sonar
propagation.
In 1993, Pat completed his dissertation at Florida State
University, as a NASA-Florida Space Grant Consortium Fellow.
He developed a new method to analyze turbulent convective
boundary layers and their fluxes. Pat has a broad range
of scientific interests including turbulent flows, nonlinear
acoustics, remote sensing of the earth's atmosphere and
oceans by acoustic, laser, radar and satellite sensors.
Currently, as Science and Operations Officer for the National
Weather Service Forecast Office in Jacksonville, he has
been involved in the training, administration and outfitting
the computer and network systems of the new Weather Forecast
Office (WFO) and its Doppler radar facility. He has received
Regional awards for his technical training of the forecast
staff, and the integration of the complex computer networks
in the facility.
He has been recognized for his operational leadership and
the technology transfer of current research into operational
forecasting. In addition to his long-standing interests
in boundary layers and remote sensing of the atmosphere
and oceans, his recent research emphasis is on tornadic
storms, use of the Doppler radar in mesoscale meteorology,
severe weather, and high resolution numerical modeling of
sea breezes and severe weather events.
Pat and his wife of thirty-four years, the former Susan
Elizabeth Day of Lake Mary, have four adult children. Three
of their children are married, while the youngest is a chemistry
student at the University of North Florida. Pat enjoys fishing
and gardening particularly raising fruit trees, orchids
and other tropical plants.
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